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Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33733/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME with an auriform presentation in both the outline of its bulk and shock, seen to the west in SOHO. Associated with a strong eruption from AR3843 near S10W50 following an M6.7-class flare; an EUV wave is seen in SDO 193 and GOES 284. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T02:56Z (-4.87h, +4.99h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/10/03 20:35Z
Plane of Sky 1: 02:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 06:00Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
POS Difference: 3:30
POS Midpoint: 04:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.09
Travel Time: ~7.09 * 7:40 = 54:21

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-06T02:56Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/10/05 01:03Z

Lead Time: 69.08 hour(s)
Difference: 43.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-10-05T01:07Z

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